特斯拉的电力革 命需要新硬件-全球-汽车行业Word文档格式.docx
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特斯拉的电力革 命需要新硬件-全球-汽车行业Word文档格式.docx
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HowWillBigDataRevolutionizetheAutoIndustry?
).However,connectivitywillalsorequiretheneedtoupdatesoftwareonanyhardware,drivingthe2ndmajortrend-hardwareabstraction.Today,hardwarehasdeeplyembeddedsoftwarethatisdifficulttovalidate&
update.Withabstraction,thehardwarebecomeslessvaluable,butthesoftwareismorevaluable.Thistrendisdisruptiveforsuppliersthatcouldloseshareorbedisintermediatedbytheautomakers.
SowhowinsLap2:
Electronics…
TeslawinsLap2offeringAutoPilot(Level2).TheModel3givesusalookintofutureEAswithitscentralcomputeplatform&
connectivity;
however,thehighcentralizationaddscomplexitytoassembly,andthelackofredundancyimpliesLevel4isunlikely.Additionally,thehigherdegreeofcentralizationdoesnotappeartoofferanadvantagevs.thedomaincontrollerstrategybeingpursuedbymostOEMs.WealsothinkLiDARisneededforLevel4(seeQ-Series:
Whowillwintheracetoautonomouscars?
).
GoodforsemisandGOOG,buthigherriskforTier1electronicssuppliers
TheModel3had~4xmoresemicontentvs.theaverageICEvehicleduetoADAS&
powertrainsemis.DespiterecentnewsthatTSLAplanstoin-sourcesomesemisitsnewHardware3platform,softwareintegrationremainskey.AutosupplierslikeAPTV&
Contishouldseestrongdemandfordomaincontrollerhardware,althoughtheroleofautosuppliersinAVsoftwaredevelopmentislessclear.Forinfotainmentoperatingsystems,weseeAndroidAutoasasignificantchallengerforexistingsystemstoday.
Equities
GlobalAutomobiles
ColinLangan,CFA
Analystcolin.langan@
+1-212-7139949
GeneVladimirov,CFAAssociateAnalystgene.vladimirov@
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ThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesLLC.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURESBEGINONPAGE36.UBSdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.
Contents
Summary 3
Surprise#1:
CheaperthanExpected 3
Surprise#2:
Model3ElectronicArchitectureNottheFuture?
4
Surprise#3:
HardwareAbstractionLikelyDisruptive 5
Surprise#4:
ConnectivityDrivingBetterUserExperience 6
Surprise#5:
ClosedSystemMayLose 7
Surprise#6:
Goodforsemis 9
…butthebattlegroundisheatingup 9
Surprise#7:
Level2HardwareCostOnly~$1,800 10
Whoisbest/worstpositioned?
11
SectorSummary 12
GlobalAutos 13
GlobalAutoSuppliers 14
Tech 15
Semiconductors 15
TheFutureofAutoElectronics 16
Q:
HowdidtheModel3costcomparetoourexpectations?
17
Howwillautoelectronicschange?
#1:
DomainCentralization 18
#2:
HardwareAbstraction 19
Whowinsfromthesetrends?
21
Aretraditionalautomakersbehind?
22
AreAutomakersInvestinginConnectivity&
UserExperience?
CompetingwithAutoPilot?
WhatarelongtermrisksforTesla?
24
Level4AutonomousDrivingLooksUnlikely 24
PossiblyTooCentralized?
#3:
SimplerNotAlwaysBetter 25
ADeeperLookattheModel3Electronics 26
App
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