BBC新闻.docx
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BBC新闻.docx
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BBC新闻
5.
Blues'delight
HEMAYbelumbered[1]withanine-partycoalitionandaone-seatmajorityintheupperhouseofparliament.ButItaly'sprimeminister,RomanoProdi,seemstohavesomethingthatcouldyetoffsetthesehandicaps:
luck.Ashehimselfnoted,Italy'swinagainstFranceintheWorldCupfinalonJuly9thwasasnarrowashisownvictoryintheelectioninApril.Tied1-1afterextratime,theItalianswonapenaltyshoot-outwhenaFrenchman(whoironicallyplaysforanItalianclub,Juventus)hitthecrossbar.ThatgaveItaly'scaptain,FabioCannavaro,thetrophy—andMrProdiaboost,politicallyandmaybeeveneconomically.
AnalystsatABNAmro,aDutchbank,haveestimatedthataWorldCupvictoryadds0.7%tothewinner'sGDP,mostlythroughextrademand.Researchbyanotherbank,JPMorgan,hasfoundthatconsumptioninEuropeancountriesthatwonthecupinrecentdecadesroseafterwardsbymorethantheEUaverage.Someanalystsremainscepticalofa“WorldCupeffect”,arguingthatitmerelybringsforwardspending.ButMrProdi'sownfinanceminister,TommasoPadoa-Schioppa,thinks
(2)Italy'swinwillhaveapositiveeffect“becauseithasanimpactonconfidenceandsignifiesthatambitiousgoalsarewithinourreach”.
(3)YetthebenefitsofItaly'svictorycouldbeoffsetbythelossofesteemitwouldsufferwereittousethetriumphasanexcusefortakingtheeasywayoutofanotherchallenge.NottheleastremarkableaspectofItaly'ssuccessisthatitwasachievedagainstabackgroundofspectacularfootballingstrifebackhome.Thirteenofthe23membersoftheItaliansquadinGermanyplayforclubsthatarethreatenedwithrelegation[2]overamatch-fixingscandal.MostatriskisJuventus,apubliclyquotedclubthatsuppliedfiveoftheplayers(includingMrCannavaro).ItcouldberelegatedfromthefirsttothethirddivisionbyasportstribunalinRome.Theverdictswereexpectedtobehandeddownbytheendofthisweek.
Thejusticeminister,ClementeMastella,hadsuggestedthatthenationalteam'svictorymightearntheclubsareprieve[3].(4)Encouragingly,MrProdiwouldhavenoneofit.Hissportsminister,GiovannaMelandri,brandedtheproposal“idiocy”.Justasimportantly,someoftheplayersthemselvesrejectedtheidea.GennaroGattuso,amidfielderwhoplaysforACMilan,theclubownedbySilvioBerlusconithatcouldalsoberelegated,said:
“Thosewhohavecommittedoffencesoughttobepunished”ThatisawelcomenewthoughtinItaly.
Heavyweightmetal
FIRSTitwasmetals,nowitisthecompaniesthatminethem.InMaypricesforcopper,nickelandothermetalsrosetorecordlevels,althoughtheyhavesincefallenabit.Nowthreeminingfirmsareproposingthemostexpensivemergerintheindustry'shistory.
(1)The$40billiondeal,inwhichanAmericancompany,PhelpsDodge,planstotakeovertwoCanadianones,IncoandFalconbridge,wouldcreatetheworld'sbiggestproducerofnickel,thenumbertwoincopper,andthefifth-rankedminingfirmoverall.Therecordsmaynotstopthere:
twootherminingfirms,XstrataandTeckCominco,hadpreviouslybidforFalconbridgeandIncorespectively,andcouldmakefurtheroffers.
Soaringcommoditiespriceshaveleftminingfirmsflushwithcashandkeentoexpand.Onewaywouldbetosearchformoremetalintheground,insteadofonthestockmarket.Butorganicgrowthisexpensiveatthemoment;asfirmsrushtoincreasetheiroutputtotakeadvantageofhighprices,everyconceivableinput,fromengineerstominingtrucks'hugetyres,isindesperatelyshortsupply.Developingnewminesisalsoslow.
(2)Miningexecutivesworrythatprojectsthatgetthego-ahead[1]whenpricesarehighwillnotlooksoattractivewhenthenextslumpcomes.
Thatcouldbetrueoftheproposedmergertoo,ofcourse.PhelpsDodgeofferedapremiumof23%overthepriceofInco'ssharesand12%overFalconbridge's.Thoseshares,inturn,havebeenrisingforseveralyearsalongwiththefirms'wares—nickel,forthemostpart,atInco,andnickelandcopperatFalconbridge.
Thebossesofthefirmsinsistthatthemark-up[2]isjustified,forseveralreasons.Foronething,theyreckontheycansqueezesavingsof$900mayearoutofthecombinedentityby2008,bysharingequipmentandpersonnelamongadjacentmines,forexample,andpoolingtheirmarketingstaff.(3)Moreimportantly,theyarguethatthesizeanddiversityofthenewcompanywillmakeitlessvulnerabletomining'spainfulcycles,andsomoreattractivetoinvestors.
Thebiggestandmostdiversifiedminingcompanies,suchasBHPBillitonandRioTinto,doboasthighersharevaluations.Theyproduceeverythingfromaluminiumtozircon[3],andsoarelesssusceptibletofluctuationsinthepriceofanyparticularmetal.(4)Bythesamelogic,themoreminesafirmisrunningordeveloping,andthemorecountriesitoperatesin,thelessriskeachindividualprojectposestoprofits.
Themergedtriowillcertainlyhaveabroadergeographicalspread,withminesinfivecontinents.Butitsmainprojects,instableplacesliketheUnitedStates,CanadaandChile,neverseemedthatriskyinthefirstplace.Furthermore,despitehavingsidelines[4]incobalt[5]andmolybdenum[6],thenewfirm'sfortuneswilldependchieflyonthepriceofcopperandnickel—twoofmostvolatilemetalsoflate.
SomeanalystsmutterthatPhelpsDodgeembarkedonthemergerchieflytosaveitselffrombeingtakenover.Investorsseemtosharetheirdoubts:
PhelpsDodge'ssharesfellby8%afteritannouncedthedeal,despiteasimultaneouspledgetospend$5billiononasharebuy-back[7]schemeoncethemergerisconcluded.
Ontheotherhand,thepriceofnickelandcopperjumpedonthenews.Tradersseemtohaveassumedthatthecompanieswouldhavecontemplated[8]suchanexpensivedealonlyiftheythoughtthatmetalswouldremaininshortsupplyforsometime.Themoremoneythatminingfirmsspendbuyingoneanother,ratherthanexploringforanddevelopingnewmines,thelikelierthatis.
ParanoiaStrikesDeeper
Stop,hey,what’sthatsound?
Actually,it’sthenoiseagreatpoliticalpartymakeswhenitloseswhat’sleftofitsmind.Andithappened—whereelse?
—onFoxNewsonSunday,whenMittRomneyboughtfullyintotheclaimthatgaspricesarehighthankstoanObamaadministrationplot.
Thisclaimisn’tjustnuts;it’sasortofcrazinesstripleplay—aliewrappedinanabsurdityswaddledinparanoia.It’sthesortofthingyouusedtohearonlyfrompeoplewhoalsobelievedthatfluoridatedwaterwasaCommunistplot.Butnowthegas-priceconspiracytheoryhasbeenformallyendorsedbythelikelyRepublicanpresidentialnominee.
Beforewegettothelargerimplicationsofthisendorsement,let’sgetthefactsongaspricesstraight.
First,thelie:
No,PresidentObamadidnotsay,asmanyRepublicansnowclaim,thathewantedhighergasolineprices.Hedidoncesaythatacap-and-tradesystemforcarbonemissionswouldcauseelectricitypricesto“skyrocket”—anunfortunatewordchoice.Butsayingthatsuchasystemwouldraiseenergypriceswasjustafactualstatement,notadeclarationofintenttopunishAmericanconsumers.TheclaimthatMr.Obamawantedhigherpricesisalie,pureandsimple.
Andit’saliewrappedinanabsurdity,becausethepresidentoftheUnitedStatesdoesn’tcontrolgasolineprices,orevenhavemuchinfluenceoverthoseprices.Oilpricesaresetinaworldmarket,andAmerica,whichaccountsforonlyaboutatenthofworldproduction,can’tmovethosepricesmuch.Indeed,therecentriseingaspriceshastakenplacedespiterisingU.S.oilproductionandfallingimports.
Finally,there’stheparanoia,thebeliefthatliberalsingeneral,andObamaadministrationofficialsinparticular,aretryingtomakedrivingunaffordableaspartofanefariousplotagainsttheAmericanwayoflife.And,no,I’mnotexaggerating.Thisiswhatyouhearevenfromthoroughlymainstreamconservatives.
Forexample,lastyearGeorgeWilldeclaredthattheObamaadministration’ssupportfortraintravelhadnothingtodowithrelievingcongestionandreducingenvironmentalimpacts.No,heinsisted,“therealreasonforprogressives’passionfortrainsistheirgoalofdiminishingAmericans’individualisminordertomakethemmoreamenabletocollectivism.”WhoknewthatDagnyTaggart,therailroadexecutiveheroineof“AtlasShrugged,”wasaCommie?
O.K.,thisisallkindoffunny.Butit’salsodeeplyscary.
AsRichardHofstadterpointedoutinhisclassic1964essay“TheParanoidStyleinAmericanPolitics,”crazyconspiracytheorieshavebeenanAmericantraditioneversinceclergymenbeganwarningthatThomasJeffersonwasanagentoftheBavarianIlluminati.Butit’sonethingtohaveaparanoidfringeplayingamarginalroleinanation’spoliticallife;it’ssomethingquitedifferentwhenthatfringetakesoverawholeparty,tothepointwherecandidatesmustshare,orpretendtoshare,thatfringe’sparanoiatoreceivetheparty’spresidentialnod.
Andit’snotjustgasprices,ofcourse.Infact,theconspiracytheoriesareproliferatingsofastit’shardtokeepup.Thus,largenumbersofRepublicans—andwe’retalkingaboutimportantpoliticalfigures,notrandomsupporters—firmlybelievethatglobalwarmingisagigantichoaxperpetratedbyaglobalconspiracyinvolvingthousandsofscientists,notoneofwhomhasbrokenthecodeofomertà.Meanwhile,othersareattributingtherecentimprovementineconomicnewstoadastardlyplottowithholdstimulusfunds,releasingthemjustbeforethe2012election.Andlet’snotevengetintohealthreform.
Whyisthishappening?
Atleastpartoftheanswermustlieinthewayright-wingmediacreateanalternatereality.Forexample,did
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