商英.docx
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商英.docx
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商英
AlcoaSurges,OtherStocksStruggle
TheDowJonesIndustrialAveragewasrecentlyup9points,or0.1%,to10943,ledbyAlcoa's6.1%surge.ThealuminumgiantkickedoffearningsseasonlateThursdaybyreportingresultsthatexceededanalysts'expectations.Thecompanyalsolifteditsforecastforglobalaluminumdemandin2010.
TheStandard&Poor's500-stockindexrosefractionallyto1158,butthetechnology-heavyNasdaqCompositedropped0.4%to2374.
Themeanderingstockmarketcameafterthecloselywatchednonfarmpayrollsreportshowedanet95,000workerslosttheirjobsinSeptember,asteeper-than-expecteddeclinethatcameasthegovernmentshedtemporarycensusworkersandotheremployeesatthestateandlocallevel.
Theprivatesectoradded64,000jobs,whichwaslessthaneconomistshadexpectedandnotenoughtooffsetthebigcutsingovernmentworkers.
Friday'sreportwasareminderthattheU.S.labormarketstillremainsinthedoldrums15monthsaftertherecessionofficiallyended.ThatcouldhurtDemocratsinmidtermelectionsNov.2andincreasestheoddsthattheFedwilltakenewstepstojump-starttheeconomyatitsnextmeetingonNov.3.TheSeptemberdatawasthelastjobsreportbeforethesetwokeyevents.
"We'restuckwiththischicken-and-eggproblemwherecompaniesdon'twanttohireuntiltheyseemoredemand,buttheconsumerswon'tspurthatincreaseddemanduntiltheyreachanequilibriumontheirdeleveragingprocess,"saidEdCrotty,chiefinvestmentofficeratDavidsonInvestmentAdvisors.
Theunemploymentrate,whichiscalculatedwithaseparatehouseholdsurvey,remainedunchangedat9.6%inSeptember,thoughitwaslowerthantheexpectedincreaseto9.7%.
"Thisreportperpetuatesthepatternwe'vebeenseeingforseveralmonths,"saidJimMeyer,chiefinvestmentofficeratTowerBridgeAdvisors."Theeconomyisnotgettingalotbetterandit'snotgettingalotworse."
St.LouisFederalReserveBankPresidentJamesBullardtoldCNBCaheadofthejobsdatathattheFedwouldfaceadifficultdecisiononwhethertobeginanotherroundofassetpurchases."Theeconomyhasslowed,butithasn'tslowedsomuch,"hesaid,addingthathewouldgointothemeeting"withanopenmind."
InaseparatereportfromtheCommerceDepartment,inventoriesatU.S.wholesalersinAugustclimbedmorethanexpected.Inventoriesroseby0.8%toaseasonallyadjusted$409.43billion.EconomistssurveyedbyDowJonesNewswiresexpectedagainof0.5%.
Treasuryssurgedafterthejobsnumber,withtheyieldonthebenchmark10-yearnotesinkingto2.35%.Goldroseto$1,344anounce,whileoilregisteredmodestgains.
Incurrencies,thedollarimmediatelysunkafterthejobsreport,butrecoveredmostofitslosses.TheU.S.DollarIndex,whichmeasuresthegreenbackagainstabasketofsixcurrencies,fell0.3%.Thedollarfellagainsttheeuroat$1.3928,whiletheyenstrengthened.
ThecurrencygyrationscomeaheadofweekendmeetingsoftheWorldBankandInternationalMonetaryFundinWashington.
ETFWars:
theDeflationScenarioInvestorsShouldCheer
Howlowcantheygo?
Exchange-tradedfunds,thosehigh-techhybridsofdiversifiedmutualfundsandsharesthatarelistedonamarketliketheNewYorkStockExchange,havealwaysbeencheap.Theyhavebeengettingevencheaperinabighurry.
TDAmeritradeannouncedonFridaythatitwillpermitcustomerstotrademorethan100ETFscommission-free,followingsimilarmovesbyFidelityInvestments,CharlesSchwabandVanguardGroupoverthepastyear.
Lastmonth,Vanguardintroduced16ETFs,includingonebasedontheStandard&Poor's500-stockindexthatchargesjust0.06%inannualexpenses,or$6infeesona$10,000investment.TheSchwabU.S.BroadMarketETF,launchedlastNovember,alsocharges0.06%.InJune,theiSharesGoldTrustcutitsannualexpensesfrom0.4%to0.25%.
Whileitmaylookasifthispricewarisbeingwagedoverpennies,billionsofdollarsareatstake.
Vanguard—thecost-cuttingWal-Martofthefundbusiness—hastakenin$27billion,or37%ofthemoneythatcameintoETFsthisyear,accordingtotheNationalStockExchange.ThatwasahairmorethanthetwobiggestETFcompanies,iSharesandStateStreetGlobalAdvisors,tookincombined.Bothfirms,onaverage,chargemorefortheirfunds.
Lowpricedoesn'tensuresuccess.LaunchedlastDecember,GlobalSharesFTSEEmergingMarketsfundpledgedtochargenoexpensesuntilitreached$1billion.Butthezero-feefundreachedonly$70millionandwillsoonbeclosedown,saysGlobalShareschiefexecutiveTendaiMusikavanhu.
Likestocks,butunlikemanymutualfunds,ETFscanbecostlytotrade.Theymaytradeata"premium,"amarkupfromthevalueoftheirunderlyingassets,orata"discount."Abigbuyordermaypushupthepricethebuyerhastopay;likewise,alargesellordercanknockthepricedown.
Themoreyoutrade,themorethosecostsmatter—andthemoreimportantitistocompareanETF'spriceagainstitsindicated(orintraday)netassetvalue,orINAV,ameasureofitsunderlyingassets'worth.(OnGoogleFinance,type".IV"afteranETF'stickersymbol.)Asaruleofthumb,lookforamarketpricethatdiffersfromINAVby0.5%orless.
"Wewon'tinvestinnewETFsforafewyearsafterthey'relaunched,untilthey're'seasoned,'"addsWilliamKoehleratETFPortfolioPartnersinLeawood,Kan.
But"somethinghasshiftedinthemarketplacerecently,"saysMattHougan,managingdirectorat.Younger,smallerETFsnolongeralltrade"lousy,"hesays.Withlessvariationintradingcosts,differencesinannualexpensesarebecomingmoreimportant—especiallyforinvestorswhobuyandhold.
PeterCrawford,whorunsSchwab'sETFbusiness,saysithassurpassed$1.8billioninassetsandisalreadyprofitableforSchwab,evenatthefunds'lowfeelevels.Schwabsaysitwilllaunchatleasttwolow-pricedETFsearlynextyear.
Vanguardismakingthebiggestgamble.Inthepast,mostofitsETFsweretiedtoitsexistingmutualfunds,thusprovidingthefirm'sotherinvestorswithsavingsandtaxbenefitsastheETFsgrew.Thatisn'talwaysthecasenow,sincenotallthenewETFsarelinkedtopre-existingfunds.TheupsideforotherVanguardinvestorsisn'tcertain.
"Ifwegaineconomiesofscale,wepassthoseontoinvestors,"saysGusSauter,Vanguard'schiefinvestmentofficer."Iftheworsthappenedandwedidn'tgrow,onewouldthinkwe'dhavetomerge[thenewETFs]intosimilarfunds."Headds,"Wedothinkthey'regoingtogrow,butweknowit'sgoingtobeslow.We'rereallythinking,'Howdoesthisplayoutoverfiveyears?
'"
Thisisoneracetothebottommostinvestorsshouldwelcome.
J.P.MorganCommoditiesChiefTakestheHeat
OnJuly21,J.P.MorganChase&Co.investment-bankchiefJesStaleywasonanairplanewhenhepunchedoutanemailtoBlytheMasters,hisembattledheadofcommodities.
"Iwillnotgiveuponyouandyourvision,"hewrote,reassuringher.
Mr.Staley'snotecameafteraseriesofsetbacksforMs.Masters.OneofJ.P.Morgan'smostpowerfulexecutives,the41-year-oldMs.MastersischargedwithturningaroundthecommoditiesoperationandbuildingitintothebiggestonWallStreet.Andthoughthebluntexecutivehasbeengivenmanyresources,herdivisionrecentlyhassuffereddefectionsandmiscueswhilefallingfarshortofexpectationsin2010.
"Ithinksheisfeelingalittleheat,"saidapersonclosetoher.
Barringaremarkableturnaround,commoditieswillendtheyearfarbehinda$1.78billionrevenuegoal.Partoftheproblemwasalossonabadcoalbetinthesecondquarter.Thethirdquarterimproved,withagainofabout$154millioninrevenuethroughSept.30.Butcommoditiesisuponlyabout$189millioninrevenuefortheyear,saidapersonfamiliarwiththeresults.
Thatdisappointingperformancecomesafteracostlyandboldefforttobuildthecommoditiesdivision,oneofthebank'sbiggestbets.Since2008,thebankspentmorethan$2billionbuyingcommodities-tradingoperations,includingBearStearns,partsofUBSCommoditiesand,mostrecently,assetsfromRBSSempraCommoditiesin2010.
Globally,tradingofcommoditieshasbeenrisingforyears,largelyduetotheexpectationsforhigherdemandforfuelandfoodfromemergingmarkets.Asaresult,individualinvestorsandhedgefundshaveincludedcommoditiesintheirportfoliosasanassetclass,andWallStreetfirmshaveexpandedtheiroperationstocopewiththedemand.
Ms.MastersroutinelybecamethefaceofJ.P.MorganinWashington,whereshefrequentlyrepresentedtheindustryoneverythingfrompotentialcurbsoncommoditiestradingtothefinancialregulatoryoverhaul."Idon'tbelievetheycouldhavesentamorethoughtfuladvocate,"saidRobertHolifield,staffdirectorforSenateAgricultureCommitteeChairmanBlancheLincoln
Thesamequalitiesthatdistinguishedherasanexecutivehaveonoccasionmadeherseemcombative,saidpeoplewhohaveworkedwithMs.Masters.AtaprivatemeetingwithU.S.senatorsinthesummerof2008,shepointedlydisagreedwithanexpertintheroomwhosaidJ.PMorganhadanincentivetodriveoilpriceshigher.
"Sheisdefinitelynotashrinkingviolet,"saidBartChiltonoftheCommodityFuturesTradingCommission,whohadseveralmeetingswithheronpotentialregulatorychanges.
OnaJuly22conferencecallwithhergroup,shespeculatedaboutwhethercompetitorshadplantedstoriesaboutthebusinessandencouragedheremployeestospeakupiftheyknewthesource,accordingtoarecordingofthecall.Sheassuredemployeesonthecallthatrivalsare"scareds—lessofus"andpromisedthat"wearegoingtobuildandfinishbuildingtheNo.1commodities-tradingfranchiseontheplanet."
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