中国糖业年报.docx
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中国糖业年报.docx
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中国糖业年报
THISREPORTCONTAINSASSESSMENTSOFCOMMODITYANDTRADEISSUESMADEBYUSDASTAFFANDNOTNECESSARILYSTATEMENTSOFOFFICIALU.S.GOVERNMENTPOLICY
RequiredReport-publicdistribution
Date:
4/15/2011
GAINReportNumber:
CH11019
China-PeoplesRepublicof
SugarAnnual2011
Annual
ApprovedBy:
ScottSindelar
PreparedBy:
JoshuaEmmanuelLagosandJiangJunyang
ReportHighlights:
ForMY2011/12,totalsugarproductionisforecastat12MMT(rawvalue),up6percentfromthecurrentyearonincreasedplantedacreage. InMY2010/11totalsugarproductionisestimatedat11.3MMT(rawvalue),down1percentduetofrostdamageandlowtemperatures. MY2010/11andMY2011/12sugarconsumptionisforecastat13.9and13.6MMT(rawvalue),respectively,fallingapproximately2to3percentduetoincreasedstarchsweetenerutilization.
ExecutiveSummary:
ForMY2011/12,totalsugarproductionisforecastat12MMT(rawvalue),up6percentfromthecurrentyearonincreasedplantedacreage. InMY2010/11totalsugarproductionisestimatedat11.3MMT(rawvalue),down1percentduetofrostdamageandlowtemperatures. MY2010/11andMY2011/12sugarconsumptionisforecastat13.9and13.6MMT(rawvalue),respectively,fallingapproximately2to3percentduetoincreasedstarchsweetenerutilization.
CentrifugalSugarProduction
ForMY2011/12,totalsugarproductionisforecastat12MMT(rawvalue),up6percentfromthecurrentyearonhigherplantedacreage. Morespecifically,sugarcaneandsugarbeetproductionisprojectedat11MMTand1MMT(rawvalue),respectively,rising5and16percent. InMY2010/11totalsugarproductionisestimatedat11.3MMT(rawvalue),down1percentduetofrostdamageandlowtemperatures.
Guangxi,Yunnan,Guangdong,HainanandXinjiangarethetop5sugarproducingprovinces(beetandsugarcane),accountingfor95percentofChina’stotalsugarproduction(5yearaverage). SugarbeetandcanecrushingstartsinOctoberandNovember. Accordingtoindustrycontacts,thecrushingseasonnormallylasts120days.
SugarCane
ForMY2011/12,sugarcaneareaandyieldisforecastat1.87millionhectares(ha)and70tonsperha,up5and3percentfromlastyear. AlthoughsomeindustrycontactsinitiallythoughtthatlowspringtemperaturesinsouthernChinawouldaffectplantyields,recentwarmertemperaturesandadequatesoilmoisturehavealleviatedmanyconcerns. Sugarcaneaccountsfor87percentofChina’stotalsugarcaneandbeetarea.
Guangxiisthelargestsugarcaneproducingprovince(64percentofChina’stotalsugarcaneproduction),followedbyYunnan,Guangdong,andHainanprovinces. Inordertoencourageproduction,sugarcanemillsvoluntarilyofferfinancialassistancetocanefarmers,suchasdiscountedfertilizerorsubsidizedagriculturalequipment. Thisyearsomesugarmillsprovidedfreeorsubsidizedplasticcoveringtoprotectthecropfromcoldertemperatures(formoreinformationseeGAINCH10057andCH10015).
LocalmediareportedthattheAustraliangovernmentiscollaboratingwithprovincialagriculturaldepartmentstoresearchanddevelopnewsugarcanevarietiestoresolveongoingchallenges,suchasseeddegradation,thatlimithigherproductionpotential(forfurtherinformationonongoingproductionchallengesseeGAINCH10015). However,theprocesscantakeatleast5to10years.
Agriculturalcostscontinuetorise. ForMY2010/11,agriculturalchemicalsandfuelareestimatedtoincrease10percent. On-farmwagesrosearound50percenttoattractseasonallaborsincemanyworkershavestartedmovingtothecitiestofindhigherpayingjobs. Averageproductioncostsincreased56percenttoUSD$923perton.
TheGuangxiprovincialgovernmentisdevelopingdraftlegislationspecificallyforthesugarcanesector. Themainpointsinclude:
∙Sugarmillsmustnotraisepurchasingpricestocompeteforproductwithothermills.
∙Newsugarmillsmustpassstricterenvironmentalrequirementsandhaveacrushingcapacitynolessthan5,000tonsperday. Oldermillswillalsohavetoupgradetheirfacilitiestomeetthenewenvironmentalrequirements.
∙Sugarmillsarerequiredtosetasidefundingtofurtherdevelopnearbylocalfarmingcommunities.
Theprovincialgovernmentsetsasugarcaneguidancepricethatallsugarcanemillsareexpectedtoofferthroughouttheyear. Incaseswherethemarketpricerisesabovethegovernmentguidanceprice,sugarmillstraditionallyhaveeithergivenfarmersabonusorraisedthepricevoluntarilytomatchmarketrates. InMY2010/11theaveragesugarpricerose35percenttoUSD$70.30perMT(RMB456perMT)fromthepreviousyearduetolesstotalsuppliesandcontinuedstrongdemand. ForMY2011/12,provincialgovernmentguidancepricesareexpectedtorisetopromoteincreasedacreage.
PurchasePriceofSugarCane
inMajorProducingProvinces
RMBperMT(USD$1.00=RMB6.80)
Guangxi
Yunnan
Guangdong
Hainan
MY05/06
220
170
200
175
MY06/07
270
202
303
206
MY07/08
270
202
287
265
MY08/09
275
231
245
268
MY09/10
350
280
400-410
270
MY10/11
482
350
540-550
450
IndustrySources
SugarBeets
ForMY2011/12,sugarbeetareaisforecastat285,000ha,up10percentfromlastyear. Xinjiang,Heilongjiang,andInnerMongoliacompriseapproximately90percentofChina’stotalsugarbeetoutput. ForMY2010/11,yieldisprojectedtobe3percentlower.
Thereisnoprovincialgovernmentsugarbeetguidanceprice. InMY2010/11,thecontractingpriceaveragedaroundUSD$67.20perton(RMB436perton),36percenthigherthanthepreviousyear. InMY2011/12,sugarmillsinXinjiangandHeilongjiangannouncedtheyplannedtoraisethesugarbeetpurchasingpriceby20and15percenttoencouragefarmerstoboostplantingarea.
PurchasePriceofSugarBeets
inMajorProducingProvinces
RMBperMT(USD$1.00=RMB6.8)
Xinjiang
Heilongjiang
InnerMongolia
MY05/06
240
280-320
260-300
MY06/07
260
310-340
300-350
MY07/08
230-260
320-360
310-330
MY08/09
300-330
320-370
320-340
MY09/10
280
320-370
320-360
MY10/11
380
480
450
MY11/12
420-490
550
IndustrySources
Consumption
MY2010/11andMY2011/12sugarconsumptionisforecastat13.9and13.6MMT(rawvalue),respectively,droppingapproximately2to3percentonincreasedstarchsweetenerutilization. Demandfromtheprocessedfood,beverage,andcateringsectorhasrisenonaverage10percenteachyear,whichplacedpressureondomesticcane/beetsugarsuppliesandcausedpricestorise. Asaresult,morebusinesseshavebegunsubstitutingcane/beetsugarwithstarchsugar. Forinstance,accordingtoindustrysources,afewbusinesseshavereplaced50and90percentofthetotalsugarcontentincocamixandmooncakeswithstarchsugar.
Accordingtothe2011ChinaSugarAssociationreport,MY2009/10percapitacane/beetsugarconsumptionisestimatedat11kg(rawvalue). Foodprocessing,beverage,andpharmaceuticalindustriesarethelargestsugarconsumers,accountingfor65percentoftotalsugarconsumption. Theremaining35%isatthehouseholdandfoodservicelevel.
Trade
MY2011/12sugarimportsareforecastat1.6MMT,unchangedfromlastyearonstrongdemandandlowtotalsugarsupplies. Afterthecrushingseasonends,importsalesaregenerallyhigherbecauseitismorepricecompetitive. Privatetradersconsiderthetimingofstatesugarreserveauctionsbeforepurchasingsugarimports,asthiscanaffecttheiroverallprofitmargins. TheCY2010TRQis1.95MMT,withanin-quota-tariffof15percent. TheCY2010out-of-quotatariffrateis50percent. Since2005,thequotaandtariffratehavenotchanged.
AsstipulatedinChina’sWTOaccessionagreement,30percentoftheTRQ(585,000MT)isreservedfornon-statetradingenterprisesandtheremaining70percentisassignedtostatetradingenterprises. ManyindustrysourcesbelievethatthequotaallocationsbythemselvesareinsufficienttoprocureaPanamaxvessel,whichrequirepoolinginordertogetacompetitiveshippingrate. EachyearChinaimportsabout450,000MTofrawsugar(statetrade)fromCubaunderalongstandingbilateralagreementsignedinthe1950’s. InMarch2011,thefirstCY2011shipmentofCubansugarlandedinTianjin.
Stocks
ForMY2011/12,endingstocksareforecastat1.7MMT(rawvalue),200,000tonshigherthanlastyear. Stocksincludestate,industrial,commercial,anddistributionsectorreserves. InMY2010/11strongdemandandlowerthanaverageproduction(5yearaverage)causedstocklevelstodrop800,000tonsfromthepreviousyear.
Thecentralandprovincialgovernmentsmanagereservestostabilizemarketpricesandensureadequatesupplies.TheNationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionistheleadagencythatdecidesonthescaleandthetimingofpurchasesandauctions(FormoreinformationseeGAINCH10057orCH10015). ForMY2010/11,byMarchthegovernmentauctioned770,000tonsofsugartomitigatepricerises.
AuctionsofStateSugarReserves(tons)inMY09/10
Date
Quantity
AveragePrice(RMB)
12/10/2009
200,000
4,945
12/21/2010
300,000
4,672
01/21/2010
360,000
4,797
03/05/2010
260,000
5,437
04/28/2010
100,000
4,945
07/06/2010
100,000
5,248
08/12//2010
150,000
5,417
09/09/2010
240,000
5,662
TotalinMY09/10
1,710,000
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