britanniaruesthewaves原文.docx

britanniaruesthewaves原文.docx

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britanniaruesthewaves原文

BritanniaRuestheWaves

AndrewNeil

　　Britain'smerchantnavyseldomgrabstheheadlinesthesedays;itisalmostaforgottenindustry.Yetshippingistheessentiallifelineforthenation'seconomy.Ninety-ninepercentofourtradeinandoutofthecountrygoesbyship—andoverhalfofitinBritishships.

　　ShippingisalsoasignificantBritishsuccessstory.Itearnsover￡1000millionayearinforeignexchangeearnings:

withoutourmerchantfleet,thebalanceofpaymentswouldbepermanentlyindeficit,despiteNorthSeaoil.But,todaythisvitalBritishindustryismoreinperilthaneverbefore.Onalmostallthemajorsearoutesoftheworld,theBritishfleetrisksbeingelbowedoutbystiffforeigncompetition.

　　Thethreatcomesfromtwomaindirections:

fromtheRussiansandtheEasternbloccountrieswhoarenowinthemiddleofamassiveexpansionoftheirmerchantnavies,andcarvingtheirwayintotheinternationalshippingtradebyseverelyundercuttingWesternshippingcompaines;andfromthemerchantfleetsofthedevelopingnations,whoarebentontakingoverthelion'sshareofthetradebetweenEuropeandAfrica,AsiaandtheFarEast--routesinwhichBritainhasabibstake.

　　Today,theBritishfleetnolongerdominatesthehighseas:

ourshareoftheworld'smerchantfleethasfallenfrom40percenttoaroundeightpercent.But,intermsoftonnage,theBritishmerchantnavyhascontinuedtoexpand,itcannowcarryovertwo-thirdsmorethanitcouldin1914,and,almostaloneamongourtraditionalindustries,shippinghasremainedamajorsuccessstory.

　　UnliketherestofBritishindustry,ship-ownersinvestedbig.Intheearly1960s,theshippingcompaniescashedinongovernmentgrantsandtaxconcessions.Between1966and1976,Britishshippinglinesinvestedatarateofover￡1millionaday.Bytheearly1970s,itseemedthat,some-whereintheworld,anewBritishshipwasbeinglaunchedeveryweek.TheresultisthatBritainhasaverymodernfleet:

theaverageageofourmerchantshipsisonlysixyears,andoverhalfthefleetisunderfiveyearsold.Forsometimenow,Britishshippingmanagershavestayedaheadofthecompetitionbyinvestinginthemostsophisticatedships.

　　TheothermajorfactorwhichhasplayedakeyroleinthedominanceoftheBritishmerchantnavyisaninstitutioninventedbytheBritishwellover100yearsago:

the‘conference'.

　　Inthemiddleofthe19thcentury,competitionbetweensailing-shipsandsteam-shipsbecameout-throat,andpricecuttingruinedmanylong-establishedcompanies.Sotheshipownersgottogethertoestablishamoresettledsystem,andtheysetupasystemofpricefixing.Inotherwords,everypossibletypeofcargohadaprice,whichallownersagreedtocharge.Itwas,infact,acartel,thoughtheBritishshipownersgaveitthemoredignifiednameofa’conference'.Thesystemhascertainlystoodthetestoftime.Today,thereareabout300conferencesgoverningthetrade-routesoftheworld,andtheBritishstillplayamajorrole.

　　Byreducingcompetition,shippingconferenceshavetakensomeoftheriskoutofthedodgybusinessofmovinggoodsbysea.Theymakeitharder,perhaps,tomakeabigkillingingoodtimes,becauseyouhavetosharethetradewithotherconferencemembers.Buttheymakeiteasiertoweatherthebadtimes,becausethereisnomad,competitivescramblefortheavailabletrade.

　　Bytheearly1970s,badtimeswerejustaroundthecorner.Theworldshipbuildingboomreacheditspeakin1973,butthatwastheyearoftheArab-Israeliwar,whichwasfollowedrapidlybythequadruplingofoilprices.By1974,theindustrialisedworldhadbegunitsslideintotheworstdepressionsincethe1980s,andtheshippingindustryhadentereditslongyearsofcrisis.

　　Thefirsttobeaffectedweretheoil-tankerfleets.Asoildemandwascutback,charterratesplummeted,andtheestuariesoftheworldbecamejammedwiththesteadilyincreasingnumbersofmoth-balltankers.NorwayandGreecesufferedmost.Britishshipownershadnotbecomesoinvolvedinthetankerboominthefirstplace,sotheywerenotsobadlyaffected.By1976,theslumphadbeguntobiteintothebulk-carriertrade.Bulkcarriersareshipsthatcarrydrycargoofoneparticularkind,suchassugar,coalorwheat,withironorebeingbyfarthemostimportant.Butwiththeworldsteelindustrydeepinthedoldrums,whoneededironorecarriersWithitsbigbulk-carrierfleet,theBritishshippingindustrynowbegantofeelthepinch.

　　Eventhoughtheslumpspreadfastintomostshippingsectors,theBritishfleetwasstillalongwayfrombankruptcy.Theoneareawhichhasweatheredtheeconomicstormsbestisthatcontrolledbytheconferences:

thescheduledfreight-linerservices--andthatiswhereBritain'sfleetisstronglyentrenched.

　　Liner-freightvesselsofferpeoplewhowanttosendgoodsbyseaaregular,scheduledshippingservice;theyfollowagreedroutes,or‘lines',andcallatportsonagreeddates.Forexample,ifIwanttosendashipmentofsparetractorpartsfromTaiwantoBangkok,allIhavetodoiscontacttheFarEastFreightConference,andthatwillbeabletotellmewhenthenextlinershipwillbecallingatTaiwan,theexactdateonwhichitwillgettoBangkok,andthegoingfreightrate.Itisanideal‘parcel'serviceforpeoplewithcargoesthatarenotbigenoughtomakeitworthcharteringawholeship.

　　Itisalsoaplusfortheshipownersnottobedependentononlyonecustomer.Linershipscarryallsortsofdifferentcargoes--mainlyfinishedmanufacturedgoods--so,ifthereisaslumpinoneparticularindustry,providedthereisstillbuoyancyinotherindustries,thelinerfleetscanstillsurvive.Thatgivesthemadistinctadvantageoveroiltankersorbulkcarriers,becausethelatteraredependentononeortwobasicrawmaterials.ThatiswhyBritainhasremainedrelativelystrong.

　　MuchofBritain'slinerfleetrarelyseesaBritishport.Ourshipsareextensivecross-traders;thatis,theycarrygoodsbetweenforeigncountries.Britishcompaniesarebig,forexample,ontheJapan-to-Australiarun,andonthegrowingtraderoutesbetweentheFarEastandtheMiddleEast,aroundthePersianGulf.Untilrecently,thoserouteswerehighlyprofitablefortheBritishcompanies,andamajorsourceofforeigncurrencyforBritain.TheyarealsotheroutesonwhichtheThirdWorldandtheRussiansareouttomakethebiggestinroads.

　　MostemergingcountriesintheThirdWorldareouttocarryabiggershareoftheirtradeintheirownships.Developingcountriesregardamerchantnavyassomethingofastatussymbol--thenextthingtogoforafteranationalairline.Singaporehasexpandedtheirfleetby6000percentinthelast15years,Indiaby400percent.

　　ThechallengefromtheThirdWorldhasalwaysbeenforeseenbyourshippingcompanies.P&O,forexample,whilestillouttoincreasethetotalfreightitcarries,isplanningforagradualreductioninitspercentageshareofthetradewiththenewshippingpowersoftheThirdWorld.ButP&Ohasnointentionofthrowinginthetowel.Thekeytacticbehinditsstrategyofholdingontotherichestsliceofthetradehasbeentomoveup-market--togowheretheThirdWorldcannotfollow:

intohigh-technologyinvestment.

　　Containers,forexample,wereanAmericaninvention,butitwasBritishshipownerswhoputupthemoneytopioneertheinternationaldeep-seacontainerservice.Containerssavetime,becausetheloadingisdoneinthefactoryorwarehouse,ratherthanonthedockside,andtheyareverysecureagainsttheft;exceptforacodenumberontheoutside,thereisnoindicationofwhatisinsidethebox.Tocashinonthecontainerrevolution,youneedasophisticatedsystemofroadsandrailways,somethingthatmostThirdWorldcountriesdonothave:

Andcontainershipsareexpensive,around￡50millioneach.

　　P&O'shigh-technology,high-investmentstrategy,however,isfarfrombeingthewholeanswertotheThirdWorldthreat.ThedevelopingcountriesarenotouttocompetewithWesternfleetsbycommercialmeans;theywanttoimposeasetofruleswhichwillguaranteethemamajorsliceoftheshippingtrade.ThisdemandhasfoundofficialexpressionintheUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment,UNCTAD.TheUNCTADlinercodelaysdownthatbetweentwotradingpartners,80percentofthefreightshouldbesplitequallybetweentheirrespectivemerchantfleets.Thatleavesonly20percenttogointothenumerouscross-traders,allfightingforashare,anditisonthesecross-tradesthatBritishlinercompaniesearn40percentoftheirrevenue.NotenoughcountrieshaveratifiedtheUNCTADcodeyettobringitintoforce.Butifitdoesbecomeuniversal,itcouldstrikeasevereblowtoBritain'slinertrade.

　　TheIronCurtaincountriesrepresentanevengreaterandmoreorganisedthreattothefutureofBritain'slinerships,anditisathreatthatismuchmoredifficulttocounter.

　　Russiahasexpandeditscargo-linerfleetfarfasterthanthegrowthineitheritsowntradeorworldtradewouldjustify.Today,ithasthelargestlinerfleetintheworldandanotheronemilliontonsshouldcomeintoservicebefore1980.Andwithitspolicyofexcessivelylowfreightrates,theRussianmerchantnavyhasalreadymademajorinroadsintoWesterntrade.

　　Russianowcarries95percentofitsseabornetradewiththeEECinitsownships.Moreimportant,itisbitingdeeplyintothemajorcross-tradingroutesoftheworld.Easternbloccountries--Russia,withPolandandEastGermany-havealreadycaptured20percentofthecargotrafficonthebusysea-lanesoftheNorthAtlantic,almost25percentofthetradebetwee