Quantitative analysis of influence factors of private car ownership in China.docx
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Quantitative analysis of influence factors of private car ownership in China.docx
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QuantitativeanalysisofinfluencefactorsofprivatecarownershipinChina
QuantitativeanalysisofinfluencefactorsofprivatecarownershipinChina
Abstracts:
ThisPaperusedhasPeople'sRepublicofChinastatisticsannouncedof1988-2010yearstotal23yearsbetweenofrelateddata,selecthassomerelativecomparedobviouslyofeffectfactors,usingEviewssoftwareonmodeldohasmeasurementanalysis,analysisincludingtownpopulation,andhighwaymileage,andtownresidentspercapitacandominatedincome,andnationalcarproductionzaineioffactorsonChinaprivatecarhasvolumeofeffect,eventuallyobtainedthisfourafactorseffectwithChinacarsofhasvolume.ThisontheonehandprovidesomereferencesforthedevelopmentofChina'sautomobileindustry,butalsoprovidesabetterpracticefordevelopmentofChina'sGDP.
Keyword:
Privatecarownership;Econometricmodel;Econometricanalysisconclusion
Introduction
Sincereformandopeningup,China'srapideconomicdevelopmentandconstantlyimprovepeople'slivingstandard,carsintoordinaryfamilieshasbecomeawell-knownfact,milestoneroadcarsbegantospread,andwiththeupgradingoftheconsumptionstructureofresidents,privatecarbuyerstookonamomentumofrapidgrowth,becomeadecisiveforceinthedevelopmentofautomobileindustryinChina,willalsobecometheinevitabletrendofeconomicdevelopment.PrivatecarownershipisdirectlyinfluencedthedevelopmentofChina'sautomobileindustry,andindirectlyaffectsthedevelopmentofthenationaleconomy,in-depthstudyofthequestionofprivatecarownershipinChinaisparticularlyimportant,ithelpseveryonerecognizethestatusquo,makeareasonabledecision.Forthisreason,weconductedthisstudyonmeasuringmodelofprivatecarownership.
1.ResearchTopic
Withthestrengthofoureconomy,people'slivingstandardsimprove,thedemandforprivatecarsisalsoincreasingyearbyyear.Especiallysince2002,theshareofprivatecarownershipinthemarketrapidly,enteringthestageofprivatecarownershiptheautomobilemarket.Accordingtointernationalpricesandgrossgrowthcoefficient,thefutureState-ownedcarcapacityofpopulationin5-10ofupto500million,approximately150millionhouseholds.Thenext20years,Chinaisexpectedtobecometheworld'slargestautomarket.And128thousandvehiclesworldwide,accordingtotheendofJune,China'scarownershipcalculations,thousandsofcarownershipinChinaisapproximately63,equivalenttohalfoftheworldaverage.Becausepeoplewillbelessofthebasicnationalconditions,suchalowcarownershiphasbeenputtinghugepressureonurbantransportandtheenvironment.Trafficjams,airpollutionhasbecomealingeringnightmareformanycities,carsonenergyconsumptionandenvironmentalimpactisalsogrowing.AfterBeijingimposedoncarpurchasesafterreductionmeasures,andsomecitiesinourcountryisreadytoadoptmeasurestoalleviatetrafficcongestion.Insomelargecities,excessivegrowthoftheautomobileandthecontradictionofinsufficientroadspacemoreandmoreprominent.Becauseprivatecarsincreasinglyautomobileconsumermarkethascausedmanyproblemsanddirectlyreflectsthecurrentstateoftheautomotiveindustryasawhole,privatecarmarketattractsmoreandmoreattention.
2.LiteratureReview
Multicollinearity:
so-calledmulticollinearityreferstothelinearregressionmodelbecausethereisaprecisecorrelationbetweenexplanatoryvariablesinrelationshiporcorrelationbetweenheightandmodelestimatesaredistortedordifficulttoestimateaccurately.
Heteroscedasticityisrelativetothevarianceof.Samevariance,istoensurethatwithgoodstatisticalpropertiesofregressionparameterestimation,akeyassumptionoftheclassicallinearregressionmodel:
Generalrandomerrortermintheregressionfunctionssatisfyhomogeneityofvariances,thattheyallhavethesamevariance.Ifthisassumptionisnotmet,namely:
thevarianceoftherandomerrortermhasadifferent,knownaslinearregressionmodelsareheteroscedasticity.
Heteroscedasticlinearregressionmodel,thetraditionalmodelofleastsquaresestimationisobtainedisnotavalidestimatorofparameterestimation,notevenasymptoticallyefficientestimatorcannotatthistimeforthesignificancetestsofthemodelparameters.
Theheteroscedasticitymodelcanbeestimatedusingweightedleastsquares.
Heteroscedasticitytest--Whitetest
Inthistest,thenullhypothesis:
therandomerroroftheregressionequationsatisfyhomogeneityofvariances.Alternativehypothesis:
meetrandomerrorheteroscedasticityregressionequation.Principle:
IfnR^2>chi^2(k-1),theoriginalassumptionsaregoingtobedenied,namelyregressionequationssatisfytheheteroscedasticity.
Theabovejudgement,nrepresentsthenumber,krepresentsthenumberofparameters,k-1degreesoffreedom.Chi^2valuecanbederivedfromtablelookup.
Autocorrelation:
andcalledsequencerelated,actualinthe,ifvariableintimeorspaceoforderhasmustmeaning,onhasmayexistssequencerelated,especiallyintimesequencedataofresearchinthe,dataofobservationvalueoftenisaccordingtotimeofhasnaturalarranged,socontinuousobservationoftimesequencedataonperformanceoutinnerofcorrelation,isreferstotheoverallregressionmodelofrandomerroru_iarerelated.
3.Modelspecification
Duetothenon-linearmodelofhypothesistestinginvolvesverycomplexmathematicalcalculations,soconsideralinearmodel,sovariouswaystotestmore,analysisoftheaccuracyofthemodelisalsomorereliable.
3. 1.Variableselection
(1)Urbanpercapitadisposableincome
Privatecarownershipofthishigh-endconsumergoodsisclearlyassociatedwithincomelevel,thereforetheintroductionofexplanatoryvariablespercapitadisposableincome,andexpectedthatthefirsttwofactorswerepositivelycorrelatedwithprivatecarownership.。
(2)Nationalhighwaymileage(Km)
Thisexpectedmileageoncarownershipandthenationalroad,sointroduceexplainingvariablehighwaymileage,andexpectpositivecorrelationwithprivatecarownership.
(3)Nationalautomobileproduction(Millionunits)
Thisarticlerelatedtoprivatecarownershipandthenationinautomobileoutputisexpected,sointroduceexplainingvariablenationinautomobileoutput,andexpectedpositivecorrelationwithprivatecarownership.
(4)Urbanpopulation(Million)
Thisexpectedcarownershipassociatedwiththeurbanpopulation,urbanpopulationtopromotecarsales,theirintroductionexplanatoryvariablenumberofurbanpopulationandexpectpositivecorrelationwithprivatecarownership.
3.2.Modelformofdesign
Estimatednumberofurbanpopulationwaspositivelycorrelatedwithprivatecarownership,andpercapitadisposableincomeofurbanhouseholds,thenationalcarproductionandthenationalhighwayarepositivelycorrelatedwithprivatecarownership.
Byobservingthedata,accordingtodatacollectedfrom1988to2010model.Themodelexpressionis:
Y=
+
+
+
+
+
(i=1,2,3,4)
Ysaidprivatecarhasvolume,
saidinnotvariablesituationXia,carsofinherentvolume,
X1saidtownpopulationnumber(millionpeople),
X2saidtownfamilypercapitacandominatedincome,
X3saidnationalcarproduction(millioncar),
X4saidnationalhighwaymileage(millionkm),
saidthefactorsonyofeffectweights,µisaidrandomerrorsitems,andwillthesevariableintroducedmodelinthe.
4.Datasource
Selectedinthe2010ChinaStatisticalYearbookfrom1988to2010atotalof23yearsofrelevantdata,andprocessing.:
Y
X1
X2
X3
X4
1988
28.49
25094
739.1
43.72
94.24
1989
34.71
26366
899.6
36.98
96.28
1990
42.29
27674
1002.2
47.18
98.22
1991
60.42
28661
1181.4
64.47
99.96
1992
73.12
29540
1375.7
58.35
101.43
1993
81.62
30195
1510.2
51.4
102.83
1994
96.04
31203
1700.6
71.42
104.11
1995
118.2
32175
2026.6
106.67
105.67
1996
155.77
33173
2577.4
129.85
108.35
1997
205.42
34169
3496.2
136.69
111.78
1998
249.96
35174
4283
145.27
115.7
1999
289.67
37304
4838.9
147.52
118.58
2000
358.36
39449
5160.3
158.25
122.64
2001
423.7
41608
5425.1
163
127.9
2002
533.9
43748
5854
183.2
135.2
2003
625.3
45906
6280
207
140.3
2004
770.8
48064
6859.6
234.2
169.8
2005
969
50212
7702.8
325.1
176.5
2006
1219.2
52376
8472.2
444.4
181
2007
1481.7
54283
9421.6
509.1
187.1
2008
1848.1
56212
10493
570.5
334.5
2009
2333.3
57706
11759.5
727.9
345.7
2010
2876.2
59379
13785.8
888.9
358.4
Table 1
5.Analysisofdata
1.Allvariablesreturnofprivatecarownership
ByEviewssoftwareusingleastsquares,linearregressiononthedataintable1,toestimatethemodel,estimatedresultsareshowninthefollowingfigure.
Fromestimatedmodelsavailablefor:
Y=-396.8791+0.002875
+0.003186
+2.540321
+2.019155
T(-2.069187)(0.387972)(0.106121)(8.749228)(3.584682)
=0.995198
^2=0.994130F=932.5459D.W=0.764574
(1)Economicsignificancetest:
Resultscanbeseenbytheregressionfunctionof
coefficients0.002875,
coefficientsfor0.0032,
results2.5403,
resultsfor2.0912,fourexplanatoryvariablesaresymbolsinlinewithexpectations,andineconomictheoryalsoexplainsitssizemakessense.。
(2)Goodnessoffittest:
CanseefromtheresultswastheleastsquaresestimatecoefficientofdeterminationR^2=0.9952,AdjustedR-squared0.9941,thereforecanconclude5explanatoryvariablesexplainedthatthemodelprivatecarownershipfrom1988to2010Nationalvariantof99%,fittingbettersamples.Belowthe5%level,checkthedegreesoffreedomforthefdistributiontable4and18o
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