New Aircraft Development.docx
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New Aircraft Development.docx
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NewAircraftDevelopment
NewAircraftDevelopment:
ReflectionsandHistoricalExamples
byRichardShevell
Whatmakesanygroupofpeopledecidethatthey'regoingtobuildanewairplane?
Inthecapitalisticworld,thebasicmotivationisalwaysprofit.Afterall,thethingthatmakesanaircraftcompanyexististhedesireofthestockholderstomakemoney.Iftheaircraftcompanycontinuallyfailstomakeaprofit,thestockgoesdown,andeventuallythecompanymaybecomebankrupt.Inmanycountries,aircraftcompaniesareallorpartiallygovernment-owned.Sometimesaprojectispromotedfornationalprestigeorasamake-workprogramtoemployaskilledworkforce.Eventhen,however,itisusuallynecessarythatareasonablechancetomakeaprofitbedemonstrated.
Inrecentyears,aircraftprojectshavebeeninitiated,eveninso-calledcapitalisticcountries,withoutaastronglikelihoodofprofit.Insomecasestheremaybeapotentialeconomicjustificationinlongtermfuture,butprivatecapitaldoesnotexisttoexploitit.Inothercasestheeconomicsoftheprojectaredoubtful,orhopeless,butothernationalneedsarejudgedtojustifygovernmentfinancialsupport.
TheConcordeprogramisagoodexample.ProbablytheBritishandtheFrenchGovernmentshavevoluminousstudiesthatshowhowmuchmoneythecompaniesbuildingtheConcordeswilleventuallymakeandprovethattheparticipatingGovernmentswilleventuallygetalltheirmoneyback.Oncethesereportsareinhand,thegovernmentscanproceedtosubsidizetheprogramwhetheriteverhappensornot.IntheUnitedStates,wehaveseenthesamethingwiththeSupersonicTransportinwhichthecapitalrequirementsaresogreatthatnoaircraftcompanyorconsortiumofcompaniescanbegintohandlethem.TheDouglasAircraftCompanydroppedouttheSSTcompetitionin1963.Atthattime,astudyshowedthatifDouglascouldborrowallthemoneyrequiredtobuildtheSSTat6%interestandhadanagreementwiththelenderthatiftheprojectdidnotsucceed,noneofthemoneyhadtobepaidback,eventhenDouglasAircraftCo.couldnothaveaffordedtogointotheprogram.Theinterestchargesaloneontheinvestmentovertheten-yearcycleofdevelopmentweremorethanthenetworthoftheCompany.Inthiscasethedoubtfuleconomicsandchangingnationalprioritiesfinallyterminatedtheprogram.
Anaircraftcompanyisalsomotivatedbytheneedtokeepitsfacilitiesbusy.Oneofthemajorproblemsintheaircraftindustryhasbeentheextremelycyclicnatureoftheaircraftproductionrate.Thisisbroughtaboutbythefactthatwhenanairlinedecidestobuynew-typeairplanes,itusuallydoesn'twantthemdeliveredataslowrate.Theairlinedecides,forexample,thatit'sgoingtooutrunitscompetitorsanditwantsenoughofthoseairplanestoputatlastacoupleofleadflightsoneachimportantroute.Thenthere'sanotherreason;oncetheairlinepaysforallthemaintenanceequipment,spaceparts,loadingequipment,andforthetrainingofcrewstoflyandmaintaintheairplane,itisnotdesirabletobeflyingonlyafewofthem.Thereisasortofcriticalmassofaircraftthatmakesanysenseforabigairline.TrainingpeopleatLosAngeles,NewYorkandthreeintermediateplacestoservice,maintainandloadanairplanethatonlycomesthroughonceadayisaterriblyinefficientthing.
Aspecialcase,ofcourse,isthesmallcountrywithasmallairlinethatcanaffordonlyacoupleofairplanes.Insuchcase,theairlinecannotreallyaffordeventhesebutbecauseofnationalprestige,theyfeeltheycannotaffordnottobuytheairplanes.Furthermore,inrecentyears,thesmallairlineshavedevelopedaverysensibleapproachtothisproblem.Veryoften,anairlineinEurope,Africa,orAsiathathas1to2707'swillcontractwithanairlinelikeTWAorUnitedAirLinestodosomeoftheirmaintenance.ForexampleUnitedAirLinesdoesthemajormaintenanceformanysmallairlinesatitsSanFranciscooverhaulbase.ThenthesmallerairlinedoesnothavetomakeahugeinvestmentinequipmentandUnitedAirlinesgainsfromspreadingtheoverheadcostofitsexpensivefacility.
Ingeneral,theairlinesbuyairplanesinbigblocks.Whenanairlinebuysasizablenumberofairplanesmuchlargerthantheirprevioustype,boththeirloadfactorsandtheircapitalfundsareabruptlyreducedandtheycannotconsiderbuyingmoreairplanesforawhile.So,there'salwaysalullindemandandthishashappenedagainandagainandagain.WhentheDC-6cameoutin1946,Americanbought25andUnitedbought25.By1948,theDouglasplantwaspracticallyempty.Douglashadsaturatedthemarket.By1951,DC-6'sandDC-7'scouldnotbebuiltfastenough.In1958-59,BoeingandDouglasintroducedthejettransport.By1961again,theairlineswereinfinancialtroubleand707andDC-8productionwasdowntoatrickle.Theincreasefrom130or140seatsinstandard707'sandDC-8'sor200seatsinastretchedDC-8,to360seatsinthe747wasanenormousjumpandthat,togetherwiththeseriousbusinessrecessionin1970-71,ledtolackofrepeatordersforthe747.Laterthe747orderraterosetoaverysatisfactorylevel.
ThemergeroftheDouglasAircraftCo.withMcDonnellAircraftwasforcedbythiscyclicproblem.In1961-62DouglaswasbuildingoneDC-8amonth.ThatwasthetotalproductionoftransportsatLongBeach.Theemploymentwasreducedtounder10,000.Thencamethesuddenbigbuildupinworldwideairtraffic,plusthefactthatDouglascameoutwiththeDC-9whichstartedsellingbeyondanyone'sdreams.Furthermore,afterseveralyearsofeffortbytheengineeringdepartmenttoconvincemanagementtoimprovetheDC-8,themanagementfinallydecidesthatthiswasthetimetodeveloptheDC-8series60andtheorderspouredinforthat.AndintwoyearstheDouglasCompanytriedtogofrom10,000to40,000people.Itwasalsoatimeofatightlabormarketwhenfewpeoplewerelookingforworkintheaircraftindustry.So,theDC-9'sandDC-8'swerebeingbuiltbycarpenters,hairdressers,barbersandpeoplewithallsortsofskills,noneofwhichhadanythingtodowithbuildingairplanes.Andthemanhoursrequiredtobuildtheairplanesliterallytripled.Now,ifDouglashadbeenabletokeepitsfacilitiesbusyin1961andnotletemploymentdropsolow,itwouldhavehadsufficientexperiencedpeopletoprovideabaseforexpansion.
Thiscyclicproblemgoesonallthroughthehistoryoftheaircraftbusiness.Theintelligentaircraftmanagement(andIthinknowthatprobablyallthecompaniesarewellawarethatthisisessential)doeseverythingitcantoleveltheworkload.Ittriestodiscouragetheairlinesfromrequestingexcessivelyfastdeliveries-inanefforttospreadthedeliveriesoveralongerperiod.Eachcompanytriestoinitiateanewprojectintheengineeringphasesothataboutthetimetheworkloadonanoldprojectisplummeting,abuild-upstartsonthenewone,therebylevelingoutthepeaksandthevalleys.Ontheotherhand,onecannotjustsayyouneedaproductandthereforedecidetobuildsomethingwhichhasnomarket.Ofcoursethatmayleveloutyourpeaksandvalleyssoyounolongerhavetheoscillations.Infact,youmayfindthatyourproductionratehasbeenpermanentlyleveledoutatzerobecausethereisnocompany.Acompanynevergoesintoanewprojectunlessitthinksitcanmakeaprofit.Experienceshowsthatifyouareevergoingtobreakeven,youhadbetterthinkthatyou'regoingtomakeaprofit.
Now,whataretherequirementsforaprofit?
Theprimerequirementforaprofitisalargeenoughmarket.Thenumberoffactorsinvolvedinamarketareverygreat.
First,thereisthebasictravelgrowthpatternwhichwillbediscussedinmoredetaillater.Thethere'sthecapacityoftheprojected-airplane.Ifyoubuildthewrongsize,justafteryouhavespentseveralhundredmilliondollarsindevelopment,somebodyelsewillcomeandbuildtherightsizeandyou'llhavetotakeyourairplanesandsellthemoffasuniquelunchrooms.Historyhasafewofthose.TherewaslargeengineairplanebuiltinthetwentiescalledtheFokkerF-32.Itwasafourengineairplanewithanacelleundereachwingwitheachnacellehavingbothatractorpropellerinfrontandapusherinback.Anditwasmagnificenttobehold.Butitwasmuchtoobigforthetraffic.AndwithinacoupleofyearstheF-32'sliterallywerebeingusedforlunchrooms.Itwasthewrongsize.
Thenyouhavetohavepassengerdemandforyourairplane.Theairlineswilloftenemphasizethataircrafteconomydataalonemaybemeaningless.Supposeanairplaneisproducedwithatenpercentlowercostperseatmile.Theairlinesmaysay"that'sjustgreat,butwhatdoesitmeanifthepeopledon'tcomeintoourgate?
'Anewairplanemusthaveallthefeaturesdesiredbythepublicandyouhavetoknowandanticipatewhatthosefeaturesare.Asanexample,inhistory,theBoeing247hadmanyofthetechnicaladvancesoftheDC-3.ItwasbuiltonlyayearortwoaheadoftheDC-3.MostofyouhaveneverheardofaBoeing247becauseitwastoosmallandafterBoeingbuiltsomethinglike65ofthemitdisappearedfromproduction.Itwasafinelookingairplaneanditstillistoday.Butitwasatenpassengerairplane.TheDC-3camealongwith21seats,afloortoceilingheightpermittingpeopletowalkdowntheaislewithoutbendingover,amorespaciousfeelinginthecabin,andahighercruisespeed.Andallofasudden,nobodyeverboughtanotherBoeing247.TheDC-3tookovertheworld.So,youhavetohavepassengerdemandforyourairplane.ItshouldbementionedthattheDC-3alsobenefitedfromsignificanttechnologicaladvancessuchasgullenginecowls,wingflaps,more
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