Commodity Futures Trading For Beginners 商品期货入门.docx
- 文档编号:10790942
- 上传时间:2023-02-22
- 格式:DOCX
- 页数:28
- 大小:45.62KB
Commodity Futures Trading For Beginners 商品期货入门.docx
《Commodity Futures Trading For Beginners 商品期货入门.docx》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《Commodity Futures Trading For Beginners 商品期货入门.docx(28页珍藏版)》请在冰豆网上搜索。
CommodityFuturesTradingForBeginners商品期货入门
http:
//www.rb-
CommodityFuturesTradingforBeginners
ByBruceBabcock
TableofContents
1-Introduction
2-CommodityTradingAsAnInvestmentVehicle
3-TheRisksofTrading
4-TheHistoryofTrading
5-TheTradingProcess
6-MakingATrade
7-TheTruthAbouttheCommodityMarkets
8-SeparatingtheWinnersandLosers
9-LearningToTradeCorrectly
10.1-ElementsofaSuccessfulTradingPlan--GettingStarted
10.2-ElementsofaSuccessfulTradingPlan--TradeWithTheTrend
10.3-ElementsofaSuccessfulTradingPlan--CutLossesShort
10.4-ElementsofaSuccessfulTradingPlan--LetProfitsRun
10.5-ElementsofaSuccessfulTradingPlan--TheMarketsYouTrade
10.6-ElementsofaSuccessfulTradingPlan--ManageRisk
11-PsychologicalPitfalls
Introduction
Manypeoplehavebecomeveryrichinthecommoditymarkets.Itisoneofafewinvestmentareaswhereanindividualwithlimitedcapitalcanmakeextraordinaryprofitsinarelativelyshortperiodoftime.Forexample,RichardDennisborrowed$1,600andturneditintoa$200millionfortuneinabouttenyears.
Nevertheless,becausemostpeoplelosemoney,commoditytradinghasabadreputationasbeingtooriskyfortheaverageindividual.Thetruthisthatcommoditytradingisonlyasriskyasyouwanttomakeit.
Thosewhotreattradingasaget-rich-quickschemearelikelytolosebecausetheyhavetotakebigrisks.Ifyouactprudently,treatyourtradinglikeabusinessinsteadofagiantgamblingcasinoandarewillingtosettleforareasonablereturn,therisksareacceptable.Theprobabilityofsuccessisexcellent.
Theprocessoftradingcommoditiesisalsoknownasfuturestrading.Unlikeotherkindsofinvestments,suchasstocksandbonds,whenyoutradefutures,youdonotactuallybuyanythingorownanything.Youarespeculatingonthefuturedirectionofthepriceinthecommodityyouaretrading.Thisislikeabetonfuturepricedirection.Theterms"buy"and"sell"merelyindicatethedirectionyouexpectfuturepriceswilltake.
If,forinstance,youwerespeculatingincorn,youwouldbuyafuturescontractifyouthoughtthepricewouldbegoingupinthefuture.Youwouldsellafuturescontractifyouthoughtthepricewouldgodown.Foreverytrade,thereisalwaysabuyerandaseller.Neitherpersonhastoownanycorntoparticipate.Hemustonlydepositsufficientcapitalwithabrokeragefirmtoinsurethathewillbeabletopaythelossesifhistradeslosemoney.
Inadditiontospeculators,boththecommodity'scommercialproducersandcommercialconsumersalsoparticipate.Theprincipaleconomicpurposeofthefuturesmarketsisforthesecommercialparticipantstoeliminatetheirriskfromchangingprices.
Ononesideofatransactionmaybeaproducerlikeafarmer.Hehasafieldfullofcorngrowingonhisfarm.Itwon'tbereadyforharvestforanotherthreemonths.Ifheisworriedaboutthepricegoingdownduringthattime,hecansellfuturescontractsequivalenttothesizeofhiscropanddeliverhiscorntofulfillhisobligationunderthecontract.Regardlessofhowthepriceofcornchangesinthethreemonthsuntilhiscropwillbereadyfordelivery,heisguaranteedtobepaidthecurrentprice.
Ontheothersideofthetransactionmightbeaproducersuchasacerealmanufacturerwhoneedstobuylotsofcorn.Themanufacturer,suchasKellogg,maybeconcernedthatinthenextthreemonthsthepriceofcornwillgoup,anditwillhavetopaymorethanthecurrentprice.Toprotectagainstthis,Kelloggcanbuyfuturescontractsatthecurrentprice.InthreemonthsKelloggcanfulfillitsobligationunderthecontractsbytakingdeliveryofthecorn.Thisguaranteesthatregardlessofhowthepricemovesinthenextthreemonths,Kelloggwillpaynomorethanthecurrentpriceforitscorn.
Inadditiontoagriculturalcommodities,therearefuturesforfinancialinstrumentsandintangiblessuchascurrencies,bondsandstockmarketindexes.Eachfuturesmarkethasproducersandconsumerswhoneedtohedgetheirriskfromfuturepricechanges.Thespeculators,whodonotactuallydealinthephysicalcommodities,aretheretoprovideliquidity.Thismaintainsanorderlymarketwherepricechangesfromonetradetothenextaresmall.
Ratherthantakingdeliveryormakingdelivery,thespeculatormerelyoffsetshispositionatsometimebeforethedatesetforfuturedelivery.Ifpricehasmovedintherightdirection,hewillprofit.Ifnot,hewilllose.
InhisbookTheFuturesGame,ProfessorRichardTewelesexplainsthefunctionsofthefuturesmarkets:
"Inadditiontoreducingthecostsofproduction,marketingandprocessing,futuresmarketsprovidecontinuous,accurate,well-publicizedpriceinformationandcontinuousliquidmarkets.Futurestradingis[thus]beneficialtothepublicwhichultimatelyconsumesthegoodstradedinthefuturesmarkets.Withoutthespeculatorfuturesmarketscouldnotfunction."
Sincespeculatorsperformthevaluablefunctionsofprovidingliquidityandassumingtheriskofpricefluctuation,theycanearnsubstantialreturns.Thepotentiallylargeprofitsareavailablepreciselybecausethereisalsoariskofsubstantialloss.
©1999byRealityBasedTradingCompany
AllRightsReserved.
CommodityTradingAsAnInvestmentVehicle
Therearemanyinherentadvantagesofcommodityfuturesasaninvestmentvehicleoverotherinvestmentalternativessuchassavingsaccounts,stocks,bonds,options,realestateandcollectibles.
Theprimaryattraction,ofcourse,isthepotentialforlargeprofitsinashortperiodoftime.Thereasonthatfuturestradingcanbesoprofitableisleverage.
Forinstance,ifyouhada$10,000futurestradingaccount,youcouldtradeoneS&P500stockindexfuturescontract.Ifyouweregoingtobuytheequivalentamountofcommonstocks,youwouldcurrentlyneedabout$350,000,thirty-fivetimesasmuch.
Let'ssayyoudecidedthatthestockmarketwasgoingtogoup.Youcouldinvest$350,000andbuyindividualstocksequivalenttotheS&Pindex,oryoucouldbuyoneS&Pfuturescontract.BuyingafuturescontractisthesameasbettingthattheS&Pindexwillgoup.
IfyouhadmadeyourmoveonthefirsttradingdayofSeptember,1996andheldyourpositionfortwoweeks,yourcommonstockpositionwouldhavebeenworthabout$20,000morethanwhenyouboughtit,againofaboutsixpercent.Notbadforonlytwoweeks.Ifyouhadtakenthefuturesroute,however,youwouldhavemadethesame$20,000,whichwouldhavebeena200percentgainonthe$10,000marginrequiredinyourfuturestradingaccount.
Thatisanactualexampleofthetremendousreturnsyoucanearninashortperiodoftimetradingfutures.Ofcourse,youcanlosemoneyjustasfastifyoutradeinthewrongdirection.Supposeyouhadthoughtthestockmarketwasabouttogodownandyouhadsoldafuturescontractinsteadofbuyingone.Ifyouhadvaliantlyhelditfortwoweeks,youwouldhavelost$20,000.That'sagoodexampleofwhyyoumustexityourtradesquicklyiftheystarttomoveagainstyou.
Anotheradvantageoffuturestradingismuchlowerrelativecommissions.Yourcommissiononthat$20,000futurestradingprofitwouldhavebeenonlyabout$30to$50.Commissionsonindividualstocksaretypicallyasmuchasonepercentforbothbuyingandselling.Thatcouldhavebeen$7,000tobuyandsellabasketofstocksworth$350,000.
Whileprofitscanbelargeincommoditytrading,itisnoteasytomakeconsistentlycorrectdecisionsaboutwhatandwhentobuyandsell.
Commodityspeculationoffersanimportantadvantageoversuchilliquidvehiclesasrealestateandcollectibles.Thebalanceinyouraccountisalwaysavailable.Ifyoumaintainsufficientmargin,youcanevenspendyourcurrentprofitonatradewithoutclosingouttheposition.Withstocks,bondsandrealestate,youcan'tspendyourgainsuntilyouactuallyselltheinvestment.
Asyouwillsee,commoditytradingisnotparticularlycomplicated.Unlikethestockmarketwherethereareovertenthousandpotentialstocksandmutualfunds,thereareonlyaboutfortyviablefuturesmarketstotrade.Thosemarketscoverthegamutofmarketsectors,however,soyoucandiversifythroughoutallimportantsegmentsoftheworldeconomy.
Infuturestrading,itisaseasytosell(alsoreferredtoasgoingshort)asitistobuy(alsoreferredtoasgoinglong).Bychoosingcorrectly,youcanmakemoneywhetherpricesgoupordown.Therefore,tradingadiversifiedportfoliooffuturesmarketsofferstheopportunitytoprofitfromanypotentialeconomicscenario.Regardlessofwhetherwehaveinflationordeflation,boomordepression,hurricanes,droughts,faminesorfreezes,thereisalwaysthepotentialforprofittradingcommodities.
Thereareeventaxadvantagestomakingyourmoneyfromfuturestrading.Regardlessoftheactualholdingperiod,commodityprofitsareautomaticallytaxedassixtypercentlong-termcapitalgainsandfortypercentshort-termcapitalgains.Thecurrentmaximumcapitalgainsrateisthirty-threepercent,somewhatlessthanthemaximumrateforordinaryincome.Totheextentthatcapitalgainstaxratesarereducedinthefuture,commoditytraderswillbenefit.Ifadistinctionisre-establishedsothattaxesonlong-termgainsarelowerthanonshort-termgains,commoditytraderswillbenefit.
©1999byRealityBasedTradingCompany
AllRightsReserved.
TheRisksofTrading
Beforebecomingtooexcitedaboutthesubstantialreturnspossiblefromcommoditytrading,itisagoodideatotakealong,soberlookattherisks.Rewardandriskarealwaysrelated.Itisunrealistictoexpe
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- Commodity Futures Trading For Beginners 商品期货入门 商品 期货 入门
链接地址:https://www.bdocx.com/doc/10790942.html