人工智能AI革命外文翻译中英文.docx
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人工智能AI革命外文翻译中英文.docx
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人工智能AI革命外文翻译中英文
人工智能(AI)革命外文翻译中英文
英文
TheforthcomingArtificialIntelligence(AI)revolution:
Itsimpactonsocietyandfirms
SpyrosMakridakis
Abstract
Theimpactoftheindustrialanddigital(information)revolutionshas,undoubtedly,beensubstantialonpracticallyallaspectsofoursociety,life,firmsandemployment.WilltheforthcomingAIrevolutionproducesimilar,far-reachingeffects?
Byexamininganalogousinventionsoftheindustrial,digitalandAIrevolutions,thisarticleclaimsthatthelatterisontargetandthatitwouldbringextensivechangesthatwillalsoaffectallaspectsofoursocietyandlife.Inaddition,itsimpactonfirmsandemploymentwillbeconsiderable,resultinginrichlyinterconnectedorganizationswithdecisionmakingbasedontheanalysisandexploitationof“big”dataandintensified,globalcompetitionamongfirms.PeoplewillbecapableofbuyinggoodsandobtainingservicesfromanywhereintheworldusingtheInternet,andexploitingtheunlimited,additionalbenefitsthatwillopenthroughthewidespreadusageofAIinventions.ThepaperconcludesthatsignificantcompetitiveadvantageswillcontinuetoaccruetothoseutilizingtheInternetwidelyandwillingtotakeentrepreneurialrisksinordertoturninnovativeproducts/servicesintoworldwidecommercialsuccessstories.ThegreatestchallengefacingsocietiesandfirmswouldbeutilizingthebenefitsofavailingAItechnologies,providingvastopportunitiesforbothnewproducts/servicesandimmenseproductivityimprovementswhileavoidingthedangersanddisadvantagesintermsofincreasedunemploymentandgreaterwealth inequalities.
Keywords:
ArtificialIntelligence(AI),Industrialrevolution,Digitalrevolution,AIrevolution,ImpactofAIrevolution,BenefitsanddangersofAItechnologies
TheriseofpowerfulAIwillbeeitherthebestortheworstthingevertohappentohumanity.Wedonotyetknowwhich.
StephenHawking
Overthepastdecade,numerouspredictionshavebeenmadeabouttheforthcomingArtificialIntelligence(AI)Revolutionanditsimpactonallaspectsofoursociety,firmsandlifeingeneral.Thispaperconsiderssuchpredictionsandcomparesthemtothoseoftheindustrialanddigitalones.Asimilarpaperwaswrittenbythisauthorandpublishedinthisjournalin1995,envisioningtheforthcomingchangesbeingbroughtbythedigital(information)revolution,developingsteadilyatthattime,andpredictingitsimpactfortheyear2015(Makridakis,1995).Thecurrentpaperevaluatesthese1995predictionsandtheirimpactidentifyinghitsandmisseswiththepurposeoffocusingonthenewonesbeingbroughtbytheAIrevolution.ItmustbeemphasizedthatthestakesofcorrectlypredictingtheimpactoftheAIrevolutionarefarreachingasintelligentmachinesmaybecomeour“finalinvention”thatmayendhumansupremacy(Barrat,2013).ThereislittledoubtthatAIholdsenormouspotentialascomputersand robots willprobablyachieve,orcomecloseto,humanintelligenceoverthenexttwentyyearsbecomingaseriouscompetitortoallthejobscurrentlyperformedbyhumansandforthefirsttimeraisingdoubtovertheendofhumansupremacy.
Thispaperisorganizedintofourparts.Itfirstoverviewsthepredictionsmadeinthe1995paperfortheyear2015,identifyingsuccessesandfailuresandconcludingthatmajortechnologicaldevelopments(notablytheInternetandsmartphones)wereundervaluedwhilethegeneraltrendleadinguptothemwaspredictedcorrectly.Second,itinvestigatesexistingandforthcomingtechnologicaladvancesinthefieldofAIandtheabilityofcomputers/machinestoacquirerealintelligence.Moreover,itsummarizesprevailing,majorviewsofhowAImayrevolutionizepracticallyeverythinganditsimpactonthefutureofhumanity.ThethirdsectionsumsuptheimpactoftheAIrevolutionanddescribesthefourmajorscenariosbeingadvocated,aswellaswhatcouldbedonetoavoidthepossiblenegativeconsequencesofAItechnologies.Thefourthsectiondiscusseshowfirmswillbeaffectedbythesetechnologiesthatwilltransformthecompetitivelandscape,howstart-upfirmsarefoundedandthewaysuccesscanbeachieved.Finally,thereisabriefconcludingsectionspeculatingaboutthefutureofAIanditsimpactonoursociety,life,firmsandemployment.
1. The1995paper:
hitsandmisses
The1995paper(Makridakis,1995)waswrittenatatimewhenthedigital(atthattimeitwascalledinformation)revolutionwasprogressingatasteadyrate.Thepaperpredictedthatby2015“theinformationrevolutionshouldbeinfullswing” andthat“computers/communications”wouldbeinwidespreaduse,whichhasactuallyhappened,althoughitstwomostimportantinventions(theInternetandsmartphones)andtheirsignificantinfluencewerenotforeseenassuch.Moreover,thepaperpredictedthat“asinglecomputer (butnotasmartphone) can,inadditiontoitstraditionaltasks,alsobecomeaterminalcapableofbeingusedinteractivelyforthefollowing:
”(p.804–805)
•Picturephoneandteleconference
•Televisionandvideos
•Music
•Shopping
•Onlinebankingandfinancialservices
•Reservations
•Medicaladvice
•Accesstoalltypesofservices
•Videogames
•Othergames(e.g.,gambling,chessetc.)
•News,sportsandweatherreports
•Accesstodatabanks
Theabovehaveallmaterializedandcanindeedbeaccessedbycomputer,althoughtheextentoftheirutilizationwasunderestimatedassmartphonesarenowbeingusedwidely.Forinstance,theeaseofaccessinganddownloadingscientificarticlesonone'scomputerinhis/herofficeorhomewouldhaveseemedlikesciencefictionbackin1995,whenfindingsucharticlesrequiredspendingmanyhoursinthelibrary(ofteninitsbasementforolderpublications)andmakingphotocopiestokeepthemforlateruse.Moreover,havingaccess,fromone'ssmartphoneortablet,tonewsfromanywhereintheworld,beingabletosubscribetodigitalservices,obtainweatherforecasts,purchasegames,watchmovies,makepaymentsusingsmartphonesandaplethoraofother,usefulapplicationswasgreatlyunderestimated,whiletheextensiveuseofthecloudforstoringlargeamountsofdataforfreewasnotpredictedatallatthattime.Evenin1995whentheimplicationsofMoore'slawleadingtoincreasingcomputerspeedandstoragewhilereducingcostswerewellknown,nevertheless,itwashardtoimaginethatin2016therewouldbe60trillionwebpages,2.5billionsmartphones,morethan2billion personalcomputers and3.5billionGooglesearchesaday.
Thepapercorrectlypredicted“aswireless telecommunications willbepossibletheabovelistofcapabilitiescanbeaccessedfromanywhereintheworldwithouttheneedforregulartelephonelines”.Whatthe1995papermissed,however,wasthatin2015topsmartphones,costinglessthan€500,wouldbeaspowerfulasthe1995supercomputer,allowingaccesstotheInternetandalltasksthatwereonlyperformedbyexpensivecomputersatthattime,includinganalmostunlimitedavailabilityofnew,powerfulappsprovidingalargearrayofinnovativeservicesthatwerenotimaginedtwentyyearsago.Furthermore,thepapercorrectlypredictedsuperautomationleadingtounattendedfactoriesstatingthat“by2015therewillbelittleneedforpeopletodorepetitivemanualormentaltasks”.Italsoforesawthedeclineoflargeindustrialfirms,increasedglobalcompetitionandthedropinthepercentageoflabourforceemployedinagricultureandmanufacturing(moreonthesepredictionsinthesection TheImpactoftheAIRevolutiononFirms).ItmissedhoweverthewidespreadutilizationoftheInternet(atthattimeitwasatextonlyservice),aswellassearchengines(notablyGoogle), socialnetworkingsites(notablyFacebook)andthefundamentalchangesbeingbroughtbythewidespreaduseofApple'siPhone,Samsung'sGalaxyandGoogle'sAndroidsmartphones.Itisindeedsurprisingtodaytoseegroupsofpeopleinacoffeeshoporrestaurantusingtheirsmartphonesinsteadofspeakingtoeachotherandyoungchildrenaslittleasthreeorfouryearsofageplayingwithphonesandtablets.SmartphonesandtabletsconnectedtotheInternetthroughWi-Fihaveinfluencedsocialinteractionstoasignificantextent,aswellasthewaywesearchforinformation,usemapsandGPSforfindinglocations,andmakepayments.Thesetechnologieswerenotpredictedinthe1995paper.
2. TowardstheAIrevolution
The1995paperreferredto Say,thefamousFrencheconomist,whowrotein1828aboutthepossibilityofcarsassubstitutesforhorses:
“Neverthelessnomachinewilleverbeabletoperformwhateventheworsthorsescan-theserviceofcarryingpeopleandgoodsthroughthebustleandthrongofagreatcity.”(p.800)
Saycouldneverhavedreamedof,inhiswildestimagination,self-drivingcars,pilotlessairplanes,Skypecalls,supercomputers,smartphonesorintelligent robots.Technologiesthatseemedlikepuresciencefictionlessthan190yearsagoareavailabletodayandsomelikeself-drivingvehicleswillinalllikelihoodbeinwidespreadusewithinthenexttwentyyears.ThechallengeistorealisticallypredictforthcomingAItechnologieswithoutfallingintothesameshort-sightedtrapofSayandothers,includingmy1995paper,unabletorealizethemomentous,non-linearadvancementsofnewtechnologies.Therearetwoobservationstobemade.
First,190yearsisabriefperiodbyhistoricalstandardsandduringthisperiodwewentfromhorsesbeingthemajorsourceoftransportationtoself-drivingcarsandfromtheabacusandsliderulestopowerfulcomputersinourpockets.Secondly,thelengthoftimebetweentechnologicalinventionsandtheirpractical,widespreaduseisconstantlybeingreduced.Forinstance,ittook
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