美赛b题.docx
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美赛b题.docx
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美赛b题
Water,Water,Everywhere
Summary
Waterisextremelyimportantsubsistence,whilecloselyrelatedtothepolitical,economicandculturaldevelopment,Beijingisoneoftheworld'smetropolisseverewatershortage.TakingBeijingasanexample,forwaterscarcityfactor,themathematicalmodelbyfindingauthoritativedatarevealstherelationshipbetweenwaterscarcityandrelatedfactors,andtheuseofwatershortageriskassessmentmodelforeffectiveregulationofwatershortages.
Firstly,thecompositionofwaterresourcesderivedfactors.Themaindiscussionfromthetotalwaterresources(watersupply)andtotalwaterconsumption(waterdemand)intwoways.Factorsaffectingthetotalwaterresourcesofsurfacewaterfromthestart,groundwaterandwastewatertreatmentcapacity.Factorsthataffectthetotalamountofwaterfromagriculturalwater,industrialwater,industrialanddomesticwatertostartthethirdspecificanalysis.
Secondly,RichardwasinBeijing2001-2008waterdata,usingmultiplelinearregression,toestablishthetotalamountofwaterandsurfacewater,groundwaterandsewagetreatmentcapacityofthelinearregressionequation
yˆ=-4.732+2.138x1+0.498x2+0.274x3
Again,theuseofgraycorrelationtodetermineagriculturalwater,industrialwater,industrialanddomesticwaterconsumptionassociatedwiththethirddegreeandtotalwaterconsumptionra=0.369852,rb=0.369167,rc=0.260981,Todeterminetheirriskofsignificantra>rb>rc.
Thenagain,theuseofthedatacurvefittingfunctionsbetweenagriculture,industryandtertiaryindustryanddomesticwaterconsumptionandbetweenyears
a=0.0019(t-1994)3-0.0383(t-1994)2-0.4332(t-1994)+20.2598;
b=0.014(t-1994)2-0.8261t+14.1337;
c=0.0383(t-1994)2-0.097(t-1994)+11.2116;
D=a+b+c
Predicttheamountofwater2009-2012
Afinalprediction,definedbythedegreeofwaterS=(Dy)/D=1-y/D,1994-2008calculateddegreeofwaterdrawnoutofthehistogram,dividingtherisklevel.Wetakemanyyearsofdatawerecompared,suggestingthatthenextfouryears,theamountofsurfacewaterandgroundwatertomaintaintheaveragelevelofthepreviouseightyears,thesewagetreatmentcapacityoftheaveragelevelinnearlythreeyears,2009-2012,thepredictedvalueobtained,andusingtheregressionequation
yˆ=-4.732+2.138x1+0.4982x2+0.274x3
Calculatetheamountofwatercorresponding.Bypredictingthetotalwaterconsumption,totalwaterresourcesandwaterleveloftheformulaS=(D-y)/D=1-y/D
Calculatethewaterlevelof2009-2012,accordingtothedivisionlevelofrisk,determinetherisklevelofwaterin2009-2012aretherisks.
Accordingtoourmodeltodeterminetheagriculturalwaterandsurfacewateristhemostimportantriskfactors,riskfactorscannotbequantifiedwithreferencetotheimpactoffactorssuchaspopulationsize,industrystructure,managementsystems,waterconservancyfacilities,etc.,accordingtothemodel,tocalculateanappropriatecorrectiondata,makesomerationalizationproposalstominimizeriskandtoreportwateradministrativedepartmentofBeijing.
1.Introduction
Chinaisaseriouslydroughtyandwater-scarcecountry.ThetotalfreshwaterresourcesofChinais2.8trillioncubicmeters,accountingfor6%oftheworld'sfreshwaterresources,secondonlytoBrazil,RussiaandCanada,rankedfourthintheworld.However,waterresourcepercapitainChinaisonly2,300cubicmeters,whichisonly1/4oftheworldaverage,andChinaisoneofthecountrieswiththepoorestwaterresourcespercapitaintheglobal.What'smore,Chinahasthemostwaterconsumptionintheworld.In2002,it’snationalfreshwaterusageamounthasalreadyreached549.7billioncubicmeters,accountingforabout13%oftheworld'sannualusageamount,anditisabout1.2timesoffreshwatersupply---470billioncubicmeterstheUnitedStatesusedin1995.
Sincethe1970s,Chinahasbegundryingout,whichisnotanalarmist,butanobjectivefact.Sincethe1980s,China'swatershortagehasalreadybeguntospreadfromthelocalgraduallytothewholecountry,andthesituationismoreandmoreserious,whichhasaseriousimpactonagricultureandthenationaleconomy.Soitisnecessarytobuildamathematicalmodelfordetermininganeffective,feasible,andcost-efficientwaterstrategyfor2013tomeettheprojectedwaterneedsofChinain2025,andthebestwaterstrategyshouldbeidentifiedassoonaspossible.
2.AnalysisofThisFreshwaterProbleminChina
Therequirementsofthesubjectaretodetermineafeasibleandeffective,andcost-effectivewaterstrategytomeetthewaterdemandin2025,whenitis2013.
Firstofall,itisnecessarytopredicthowlargethewaterdemandinChinawouldbein2015.Waterdemandisdeterminedbytheregionalfreshwatersupply-demandbalance,andthereforeitneedstopredicttheamountofwaterconsumptionandwatersupply.WaterresourcesdatainrecentyearsofeachareainChinacanbefoundbytheNationalBureauofStatistics.Withthesedata,thefunctionaboutthebothtwoandtimecanbefitted,andwaterconsumption、watersupplyofvariouspartsofChinain2025couldbeobtained.Thusthedryzonesandwatershortagecouldbedetermined.Withtoomanyprovincesandcities,andtoomuchdata,itisbettertowesplitChinaintoafewzonestostudy.
Astotheproblemofwatershortage,itneedstoraisesolutions.Ingeneral,storage、mobilization、desalination,sewagetreatmentandothermeasuresarethecommonreplenishmentmeasuresusedbythegovernment.Inordertoquantitativelystudytheseprograms,itneedstounderstandthespecificprocessofeachprogram,aswellaseachcostitproduced.Amongthem,thediversionmeasureshavebeenidentified.Todeterminethewaterdiversionroute,takingthewatermobilizationcostsintoaccount,inviewoftheextremelyunevendistributionofwaterresourcesinChina,thebestdiversionrouteneedstobedeterminedthroughthemethodoflinearprogramming.Inadditiontowatersupply,reducingthedemandforfreshwaterisalsooneoftheways,suchasincreasingthewaterprices,usingagriculturalirrigationdriptechnology,etc.Theyarealleffectivemeasures.Ontheotherhand,thegovernmentshouldalsoimprovethenationalwater-savingawareness.
Eachofthesemeasureshasitsowncosts,economicbenefitsandtheenvironmentalimpact.Whendeterminethewaterstrategy,itisnecessarytousingprioritiestomakedecisions.Soitneedstousetheanalytichierarchymodeltoassessandrankthevariousschemes.Whendeterminethebestsolution,combinationitalsoneedstoconsiderateitslocalconditionsanditsfeasibility.
Finally,itneedstofullycompensateforthewatershortage,anddeterminethebestwaterstrategyin2025.
3GeneralAssumptions
1.Assumingtheimpactofweatherconditionssuchasrainfallamountsofwatertoenterthefinalofallsurfacewaterresources;
2.Assumingthatthetotalamountofgroundwaterresourceswillnotreduceleakageandnolossinthetransportprocess;
3.Assumingallthewaterenteringtheamountofrenewablegroundwaterresources;
4.Assumingvariousfactorsonthetotalamountofwaterorwateranditsroleinthesizeoftheeffectofthesizeofthedegreeofriskconsistent.
5.Sizeofriskcanbemeasuredbythedegreeofseverityofwatershortages.
6.Assumingthereferencedatamodelisarealandeffective;
7.Assumingobjectivefactorstogetherwillnotmutated
4.SymbolsandDefinitions
Inthissection,wewillgivesomebasicsymbolsanddefinitionsinthe
Followingforconvenience:
AariableSymbols
Definition
y
thetotalamountofwater
x1,x2,x3
respectively,surfacewater,groundwater,sewagetreatmentcapacit
y^α
thevaluegivenbytheregressionequation
a,b,c
otherwateragriculturalwater,industrialwater,tertiaryindustryandlife
D
totalwaterconsumption
S
thedegreeofwaterscarcity
R
sizeofthedegreeofinfluence
T
year
Xi
referencesequence
Yi
standardizationofsequence
P
coefficientisresolved
F
degreesoffreedom
5thequestionrestated.
Watermeansavailablefordirecthumanuse,tokeepthenaturalwaterbodies.Includingsurfacewaterandgroundwateronland.
Riskreferstothecombinationofthelikelihoodandconsequencesofaparticularriskofhappening.
Watershortagerisk,referstothetimeandspaceinaparticularenvironmentalconditions,duetothepresenceofbothwaterrunoffanduncertainty,sothatthepossibilityofregionalwatersystemsandwatersupplyshortagesresultinglossoccurs.
CaseStudyofBeijing,Beijingisoneoftheworld'smetropolisseverewatershortage,itspercapitawaterresourcesshortage300m3,tothenationalaverageof1/8oftheworldaverageof1/30,isaseverewatershortageareasdatalistedinSchedulegives1979-2000shortageofwaterresourcesinBeijing.WatershortageinBeijinghasbecomeamajorfactorrestrictingtheimpactandsocialcapitalandeconomicdevelopment.Governmenthastakenaseriesofmeasures,suchaswaterdiversionprojectandbuildasewagetreatmentplant,industrialstructureadjustment.However,climatechangeandthedevelopmentofeconomyandsociety,thereisalwaystheriskofwatershortage.Howthemajorriskfactorstoidentifywaterresources,levelofriskofcausingharmtodivide,totakeappropriateandeffectivemeasurestoavoidtheriskofthedifferentriskfactors,ortoreducetheharmcausedbyit,whichisthestabilityofthesocio-economicstrategyforsustainabledevelopmentembodimenthasimportantsignificance.
"BeijingStatisticalYearbook2009"andMunicipalStatisticsprovidesinformationabouttheBeijingwaterresources.Usingthesedataandotherinformationavailabletoyoutodiscussthefollowingquestions:
1.Anevaluation
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